A new pandemic is on the stairs

The corona pandemic was just a foretaste of what is to come, and we are not prepared. Next time, we may be facing an enemy we can't protect ourselves from.

The threat stems from a rapid development of technology that we should otherwise enjoy. Biotechnology makes it possible to make more protein- and vitamin-rich foods, in a way that doesn't involve exploiting and killing animals. We can make new and better medicines and vaccines, and prevent diseases using gene editing. Technological progress will make our lives better if we remove the conservative and outdated regulations that hold us back, as the Genetic Technology Committee has proposed.

Unfortunately, technological developments also increase the chance of deadly pandemics, as Sigrid Bratlie and Borgar Jølstad show in a new note from the think tank Langsikt (where I am head of department). Unfortunately, our politicians don't seem to be aware of the threat.

Anyone can today order hazardous biological material home in the mail

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Imagine a virus as deadly as Ebola, more contagious than the omicron variant of the coronavirus, and that does not cause symptoms until after a long time. Such a virus could cause enormous damage before we have time to put in place countermeasures.

Such a pandemic can be created by natural evolution, but also by states or terrorists with evil intentions. Several states have bioweapons programs dedicated to creating viruses that can effectively kill the enemy.

But viruses can turn against the sender, and are therefore a double-edged sword. It need not bother terrorists, however. It's easier to vaccinate a small terrorist group than an entire population. Importantly, terrorists have shown themselves willing to commit acts of suicide. Aum Shinrikyo, a Japanese doomsday sect, is one of several organizations that have tried to spread dangerous biological material.

Fortunately, terrorists have not yet been able to create and spread deadly viruses on a large scale. But this is about to change. In particular, the development of artificial intelligence (AI) can become an important support for terrorists.

AI automates a number of tasks that previously required competent researchers to perform. AlphaFold, a AI model from Google DeepMind, has identified the structure of 200 million proteins. According to DeepMind, that equates to one billion years of research.

Unfortunately, AI can also make it easier to create the viruses one wants. Today it is demanding to use AI models that create viruses. But language models, such as ChatGPT, act as effective assistants. The way these models can help students with homework, they can, when they get better, help terrorists create deadly viruses.

Given the seriousness of the situation one would think the authorities were on the ball. But anyone can currently order hazardous biological material home in the mail, without having to register and without the authorities having control. This could easily have been solved with a requirement for a license to order biological material, but for now the government is doing nothing.

At the same time, it is not only malicious actors who can create man-made pandemics. Relaxed routines and mishaps among scientists may pose a more immediate threat. Many scientists create deadly viruses with the intention of studying them and making vaccines. Safety at the labs is unfortunately variable. The more deadly viruses scientists develop, the greater the chance that a catastrophic mishap will occur.

Lab leaks happen periodically. Maybe as late as 2019. There are good reasons to believe that the COVID-19 pandemic may have been a unintentional lab leak from Wuhan Virology Institute. A number of scientists, intelligence organizations, and experts, including the molecular biologist and Langsikt colleague Sigrid Bratlie, argue that this is the most likely theory for the pandemic's origin.

The indications of the lab-leak theory are multiple. We know that the Wuhan Virology Institute was researching coronavirus and that they had applied for support to modify a coronavirus with the genetic trait that we find in the coronavirus we became familiar with in the pandemic. This genetic trait may have been the result of natural evolution, but has not been found in any other SARS coronaviruses. It suggests that the virus has been manipulated.

If people knew that there is much to suggest that the corona pandemic was man-made, there would be a greater push to prevent new leaks. Nevertheless, the media, with the journal Minerva as an honorable exception, have not covered the issue of the origin of the pandemic. The media's sin of omission weakens our ability to respond to future threats.

Regardless of whether the next pandemic comes from a lab leak or natural evolution, we need more funding for international pandemic preparedness. The establishment and funding of the vaccine coalition CEPI in 2017, which played an essential role during the corona pandemic, is probably Norway's most important contribution to international pandemic prevention to date.

Norway has recently granted NOK 110 million to the World Bank's new pandemic fund. But this is pennies compared to what the fund needs to protect us. The fund will finance pandemic prevention measures in low- and middle-income countries, and last year received 179 applications for funding from 133 countries. Due to a lack of funds, the fund could not cover more than about one-eighth of its financing needs.

The fund is not alone in lacking funding. The WHO estimates that missing seven billion dollars to fund necessary measures to improve pandemic preparedness in low- and middle-income countries. As long as many countries do not have the ability to take necessary action, the world is vulnerable to a new pandemic. The previous pandemic started in Wuhan. The next one could start in one of the countries that did not receive funding from the pandemic fund.

It's time we realized that the world is no safer than our weakest link.