Long-term seminar with Tore Wig: How do we prevent war?

Welcome to the Long-Term Seminar! Where research and ideas turn into policy solutions. ‍‍

How do we prevent war? Lessons Learned from Conflict Research

‍

War, between countries or within countries (civil war) is a long-term threat to humanity. Intergovernmental wars between great powers in the nuclear age can be particularly devastating. Everyday theories about the causes of war are often about war being caused by evil intentions, deep disagreements, strong feelings, an abundance of weapons, or someone profiting from war. The empirical and theoretical research on war -- conflict research -- presents a rather different picture. Tore Wig will provide a review of statistical patterns in armed conflicts over the past 200 years, and what we can learn from these figures about the likelihood of a new (third) world war. He will also present one of the most successful frameworks for explaining war from peace research.

‍

This framework links war to uncertainty, information, and commitment issues, and helps explain a number of facts about war, such as: That the rarest wars have the highest death tolls, the duration of wars, why some wars are never resolved, that democracies almost never wage war with each other (“the democratic peace”), that outbreaks of war are difficult to predict, that nuclear weapons do not necessarily contribute to instability, and that the vast majority of disagreements/conflicts never end with war. This scientific perspective on war turns many of our everyday beliefs about causes war on its head, and should be used by anyone who wants to work for a more peaceful world.

‍What is the Long Term Seminar? The seminar is a meeting place to discuss ideas for long-term policy. The format is that the initiator presents for 20-30 minutes. The rest goes along for discussion. The seminar can be used to present research works, but we also welcome introductions to new ideas, concepts and technologies, presentation of unpublished and published reports, parliamentary announcements and research reviews. Despite the variety, there is a goal for all seminars to be policy-oriented. If you have something you want to present, just contact Aksel Sterri at aksel@langsikt.no.

NB: There are limited number of places to ensure a small forum and active participation.

‍